Flemington takes centre stage on Tuesday as it hosts the 166th running of the Melbourne Cup.
Frequently referred to as "the race that stops a nation", Australia's most famous equine contest will again be the richest handicap ran anywhere across the globe, with more than £5m up for grabs, rewarding each and every finisher.
Historically, this race has been extremely tricky to find the winner of and this year looks no different.
A maximum field of 24 look likely to head to post, so we're assessing some leading trends to try and help whittle down the field...
Such is the nature of the race, there is a strong trend against favourites in the Melbourne Cup.
In fact, across the last 12 years, no horse that has started favourite has won the Cup. Point Of Law looks likely to start as the jolly this time around after impressing in the Geelong Cup last time out. However, being a three-year-old -- 9 of the last 12 winners have been aged between 4 and 6 -- the trends are massively against him.
Trustyourinstinct is another fancied runner that falls foul of the trends. Joseph O'Brien has brought him along very well for this race, but the statistics say that it is very hard to win this race carrying more than 8st13lbs.
Just two of the last 12 winners have shouldered more than 8st13lbs to victory.
Of the horses that do fit plenty of the trends, Ciaron Maher's Shockletz looks an ideal candidate. The five-year-old landed a Flemington handicap in decent style back in September and has since gone onto run well at the track again, finishing runner-up to Soverato in the Tesio Stakes.
Maher has a strong hand in the Cup this year, saddling Middle Earth, Mr Monaco and Zahrann, who all come here with stats in their favour. The former -- previously trained by John & Thady Gosden -- finished third last year and relishes the 2m trip.
Melbourne Cup previous winners
Year | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Stall |
2025 | Half Yours | Tony & Calvin McEvoy | Jamie Melham | 8 |
2024 | Knight's Choice | John Symons & Sheila Laxon | Robbie Dolan | 5 |
2023 | Without A Fight | Anthony & Sam Freedman | Mark Zahra | 16 |
2022 | Gold Trip | Mark Zahra | Ciaron Maher & D Eustace | 13 |
2021 | Verry Elleegant | Chris Waller | James McDonald | 18 |
2020 | Twilight Payment | Joseph O'Brien | Jye McNeil | 4 |
2019 | Vow And Declare | Danny O'Brien | Craig Williams | 21 |
2018 | Cross Counter | Charlie Appleby | Kerrin McEvoy | 19 |
2017 | Rekindling | Joseph O'Brien | Corey Brown | 4 |
2016 | Almandin | Robert Hickmott | Kerrin McEvoy | 17 |
2015 | Prince Of Penzance | Darren Weir | Michelle Payne | 1 |
2014 | Protectionist | Andreas Wohler | Ryan Moore | 10 |
Melbourne Cup key trends
- Age: 9/12 winners were aged between 4 and 6
- Price: 0/12 winners were favourites
- Weight: 10/12 winners carried between 8st13lbs or less
- Last Run: 3/12 winners won on their previous start
- Last Run: 11/12 winners ran within the last 52 days
- Course Form: 9/12 had at least one previous run at Flemington
- Group Wins: 12/12 winners had won a Group race
- Season Form: 12/12 winners had ran at least four times in the season
*Trends since 2014
Horse(s) that fit all eight trends:
Mr Monaco
Shockletz
Middle Earth
Strictly Business
Royal Supremacy
Zahrann
Any odds displayed were correct at the time of writing and are subject to fluctuation.
