Canada vs. Mexico: Picks, Predictions, Odds and Player Props

Canada and Mexico face off at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California for a place in the CONCACAF Nations League final, with the winner taking on either the USA or Panama on March 23 back at the same venue.

Jesse Marsch's Canada side has become a major force to be reckoned with in the region after winning four of their last five fixtures and keeping clean sheets in three of them.

The Canucks have lost just one of their last seven matches on American soil and that was to world champions Argentina at last summer’s Copa America.

Mexico remain a team to be feared at home, as they demonstrated when overcoming a 2-0 first-leg deficit against Honduras in the quarterfinals.

But El Tri have struggled to impose themselves on the road, having also lost 1-0 to a Venezuela side ranked outside the world’s top 50 at SoFi Stadium last summer.

Canada vs. Mexico betting picks and predictions

Canada to qualify (+105)

The Canadian attack will be spearheaded by the prolific Jonathan David, who recently became the nation's all-time leading scorer with 31 goals. 

David could hardly be in better form after netting three goals and providing one assist in his last five games for his club team Lille, which bodes well for Canada's chances

Mexican head coach Javier Aguirre, who is in his third spell in charge, faces a couple of crucial selection decisions.

The choice up front between Santiago Gimenez, who has scored a couple of goals since his mid-season move to AC Milan, and experienced Fulham forward Raul Jimenez could prove pivotal.

Aguirre must also contend with the suspension of central defender Cesar Montes, with the coach looking for another vocal leader to replace him.

The rivalry between these two nations has intensified in recent years, with Canada securing a memorable 2-1 victory over Mexico during their successful World Cup qualifying campaign in November 2021. 

Their most recent encounter, a friendly in September 2024, ended in a goalless draw despite both teams creating numerous chances.

Canada enters this match with greater form, momentum and confidence and they have some high-quality players who are capable of causing Mexico major problems, while also possessing an ability to scrap for second balls that could prove critical.

Mexico has shown defensive vulnerabilities, particularly in their quarterfinal tie against Honduras, and Canada's potent attack should be able to exploit these weaknesses and create scoring opportunities.

With the added motivation of potentially winning their first trophy since the 2000 Gold Cup, Canada has a huge opportunity to progress to the final.

The "to qualify" bet covers a Canadian victory in 90 minutes, extra-time, or penalties, providing a safety net for bettors.

Over 2.5 Goals (+120)

Both teams possess formidable attacking talent and recent history suggests they will not sit back and try to defend for 90 minutes.

Canada has scored eight goals in their last five matches, while El Tri put four past Honduras on their last outing.

With players such as David, Alphonso Davies, Gimenez and Jimenez likely to feature at some point, even if not for the full 90 minutes, there is a strong likelihood of goals.

Montes’ absence could also lead to less organization at the back for Mexico, increasing the prospects of at least three goals being scored.

Promise David anytime goalscorer (+275)

While Jonathan David's recent form for both club and country makes him an attractive option in the goalscorer market, he may not be the only David that Mexico have to worry about.

Union Saint-Gilloise striker Promise David, who is of no relation to the Lille forward, also boasts an impressive tally of goals.

The Ontario-born frontman has hit 16 goals and added five assists in 31 appearances for his Belgian club and looks like he could see some action against Mexico.

The 6-foot-5 forward offers Marsch a different profile to Jonathan David, who can also play behind the main striker in a slightly withdrawn role.

Marsch may find it hard to resist putting Promise David on against tiring Mexican defenders, who lack the stature of the missing Montes with no other defender taller than 6 feet.

Canada vs. Mexico odds

Canada	+210
Tie	+210
Mexico	+145

Canada vs. Mexico player props

Anytime Goalscorer

Santiago Gimenez (Mexico)	+210
Raul Jimenez (Mexico)	+225
Promise David (Canada)	+275
Jonathan David (Canada)	+300
Julian Quinones (Mexico)	+333
Cyle Larin (Canada)	+350
Daniel Jebbison (Canada)	+350

Read the latest soccer news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Spotlight Sports Group. All odds displayed on this page were correct at the time of writing and are subject to withdrawal or change at any time.