Kentucky Derby 2025: Major Storylines, Top Contenders, and Getting Ready for the Big Day

The quest for the illustrious American Triple Crown begins with the Kentucky Derby (G1).

Set against the backdrop of world-renowned Churchill Downs, where the iconic 1 ¼-mile contest has run every year since its inaugural running in 1875, the Kentucky Derby has always taken place on the first Saturday in May.

The 2025 edition of the ‘Run for the Roses’ – synonymous with the blanket of roses donned by the winner – will go live on Saturday, May 3, at 6:57 p.m. ET.

There’s plenty to cover ahead of the 151st renewal of the storied tilt, including compelling pre-race storylines, contenders to watch, and how to get ready for the big day.

Saddle up for the most celebrated day in North American Thoroughbred racing, right here, on bet365.

Need-to-Know Pre-Race Storylines

‘Is 100 the magic number on the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby?’

In 2013, Churchill Downs introduced the ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ point system as a means for potential Derby-calibre horses, and their connections (owner-trainer-jockey), to have a clear and understandable path towards qualifying for the main event.

This is notable because there have been 12 winners in the point system era, and more importantly, a noticeable pattern.

Of the dozen victors, eight captured a 100-point race during the qualifying process. Half (four) won the Florida Derby (G1), two the Santa Anita Derby (G1), and one each in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Haskell (G1).

The road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby began Sept. 14 at Churchill Downs, and recently ended on Apr. 12 at Keeneland (in Lexington, Kentucky). The minimum number of points to clinch a spot in this year’s Derby is 45, up from 40 in 2024.  

‘Patience has paid off in recent years’

Since 2013, only four Kentucky Derby champions have beaten their foes to the finish line after trailing from far off the pace.

The group of comeback kids includes Orb (5-1) in 2013, Rich Strike, who famously won the 2022 Derby at 80-1 odds, Mage (15-1) in 2023, and Mystik Dan (18-1) in 2024.

As you’ll notice, the last three Kentucky Derby’s were claimed by long shots in comeback fashion.

The group of eight referenced in the section above never dropped below third at any point in the race.

‘Are the lights getting too bright for the favourites?’

Underdogs have no doubt outperformed their billing lately, but is that partially because favourites have faltered on the big stage?

It’s certainly a question worth asking as the favourite has come up short in the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby. Even more concerning, only two have finished in the top three.

This trend is a stark contrast from years prior, where from 2013 to 2018, all six favourites were victorious.

‘Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen still chasing elusive first Kentucky Derby score’

With nearly 11,000 victories to his name, Steve Asmussen is the winningest trainer in the history of North American Thoroughbred racing.

That enormous five-figure total, however, does not include a tally in the Run for the Roses.

While not for a lack of effort – Asmussen’s 26 total entries are the most of any trainer without a Derby win – the well-documented drought stands as the only real blemish on the Hall of Famer’s sterling resume.

Asmussen, who has finished second in the Derby three times (Nehro, 2011; Lookin At Lee, 2017; Epicenter, 2022) will send out Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Tiztastic and Arkansas Derby (G1) runner-up Publisher this year.

‘Into Mischief leads contingent of heavyweight sires’

Having already sired two Kentucky Derby champions – Authentic in 2020 and Mandaloun in 2021 – Into Mischief will roll out a trio of hopefuls in pursuit of number three.

The impressive group out of the prolific sire includes Tappan Street, Sovereignty, and Citizen Bull.

Into Mischief’s progeny will be competing against that of other outstanding sires in Curlin and 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

The former sired top choice Journalism as well as Grande, while Publisher and Luxor Café are by the latter.

2025 Kentucky Derby Top Contenders

Journalism

As the all but unanimous favourite heading into the Derby, expectations have reached astronomical levels for Journalism. That’s not to say, however, the hype isn’t warranted.

Victorious in four of five career starts, including three straight graded stakes (Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe, and Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby), the dynamic 3-year-old colt has the natural speed and pedigree to make good on his lofty billing.

It’s also worth noting that the Santa Anita Derby is a 100-point contest – a key trend amongst the last dozen Derby winners.

Sovereignty

Widely viewed as the second wagering choice behind Journalism, Sovereignty has proven capable of competing against top notch competition.

After concluding his rookie campaign with a Street Sense (G3) score, the 3-year-old Bill Mott trainee showed great resolve in a comeback Fountain of Youth (G2) victory on Mar. 1.

Sovereignty followed that up with a strong second to Tappan Street, also entered, in the Florida Derby (G1) last time out on Mar. 29.

Sandman

Another 100-point race winner (Grade 1 Arkansas Derby), Sandman’s consistency has varied between outings.

That is more a commentary of the Mark Casse charge’s ceiling, which is right there with the other top-flight contenders. He’s shown an ability to put his best foot forward in very challenging spots but has also come up short when expected to win (second in Grade 2 Rebel as 5-2 choice).

However, with eight career starts under his belt, Sandman possesses an experience advantage over most of the field.

Tappan Street

Hopes have been high from the get-go for Tappan Street, who was purchased for $1 million as a yearling.

Although lightly raced with just three starts, the tantalizing Brad Cox trainee has flashed immense potential.

Tappan Street graduated to the Grade 3 Holy Bull after his first start, finishing second. The Luis Saez mount’s very next outing came in the 100-point Grade 1 Florida Derby, which he won by 1 ¼-lengths on Mar. 29.

The main question mark here is experience.

Burnham Square

Fresh off a stunning come from behind triumph in the 100-point Blue Grass (G1), Burnham Square rides into the Kentucky Derby with two major boxes ticked.

While the Brian Hernandez Jr. mount will need to find another gear if he plans on delivering a similar showing against even greater competition, the well-travelled gelding should find the pace of the Derby to his liking.

Burnham Square has competed at Churchill Downs once before, finishing third in what was his second lifetime start.

Rodriguez

Arguably the most polarizing Derby participant, Rodriguez has been dubbed both a contender and pretender by industry pundits.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s look at both sides. The contender argument is built around the Bob Baffert charge’s early speed, which was on full display in a 100-point Grade 2 Wood triumph, and his ability to maintain it throughout.

The pretender argument questions that speed, and whether it will be enough against elite Derby competition.

It appears only time will tell which side had it right.

Tiztastic

Interesting storylines are by no means in short supply with Tiztastic.

Competing for trainer Steve Asmussen, who still eyes his first Kentucky Derby trophy, Tiztastic is ridden by Joel Rosario, who won the 2013 Derby with Orb.

Under the guide of Rosario, the colt turned in a career-best effort last time out in a 2 ¼-length  100-point Louisiana Derby (G2) tally on Mar. 22.

Will the Asmussen Derby curse finally be broken?

Wild Card: Luxor Café

A mystery wrapped in an enigma, Luxor Café carved his path to the Kentucky Derby from Japan, where all six of his professional appearances have come.

For that reason, there is very little to go on in terms of a proper assessment. On one hand, the Noriyuki Hori charge has won four straight contests, including the Hyacinth and Fukuryu Stakes.

On the other, what calibre of horses did he beat in those races? How will he fare from a comfort perspective in his first start outside of Japan?

Only Derby Day holds the answers.

3 Tips for Maximizing the Grandest Day in North American Horse Racing

Lauded as “The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports,” the Kentucky Derby is a can’t-miss spectacle. The unparalleled heart-pounding action is not just limited to the Run for the Roses, as there are 13 other standout races on Churchill Downs’ landmark card.

Here are three tips for making this Derby Day a memorable one:

1. Host or attend a viewing party: Get in on the unique pageantry that only the Kentucky Derby can claim by dressing to the nines and making a real day of it. Go big with your headwear, serve mint juleps, and put together Southern-inspired playlists to make Derby Day your own.
2. Keep tabs on the contenders: Look good in front of your friends by becoming an expert on the top horses in this year’s race. Learn about recent performances, jockeys, and trainers to stand out amongst your peers.
3. Stay in the know: Surround yourself with the sights and sounds of Derby Day by tuning into pre-race coverage for all the best commentary and expert fashion advice. Really ingratiate yourself into the atmosphere.

Read the latest horse racing news on site.

This article was written by a partner sports writer via Woodbine Entertainment Group.