Who will lift the Lombardi Trophy in 2024?
The Chiefs won their second NFL championship in four years with a thrilling 38-35 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, and Patrick Mahomes and co. are currently the +600 favorites to become the first team since 2004/05 New England Patriots to win back-to-back titles.
We examine how each franchise might fare next year in our very early lookahead to the 2023/24 outright market.
Kansas City Chiefs +600
If the 2022/23 season proved one thing, it was that Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL.
After losing star wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the 2022 offseason, many questioned Kansas City's ability to reach championship levels without their most dynamic playmaker. As it turns out, the Chiefs were just fine.
Now without offensive weapons WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (Patriots), WR Mecole Hardman (Jets), OT Orlando Brown (Bengals), and possibly RB Jerick McKinnon (free agent), the same questions will be asked in the leadup to the new season.
Can head coach Andy Reid and Mahomes recreate the same magic with a new cast of characters around them? The answer should be obvious.
Philadelphia Eagles +800
The Philadelphia Eagles are unsurprisingly highly-rated having come so close to NFL glory this year and although they’ll retain the majority of their key players, head coach Nick Sirianni will need some new deputies after both his offensive and defensive coordinators, Shane Steichen and Jonathan Gannon left for head coaching jobs.
Most importantly, the Eagles retained star QB Jalen Hurts. The 24-year-old signed a 5-year, $255 million deal in April.
Buffalo Bills +850
The Buffalo Bills were amongs the favorites last year but fell short of expectations, winning a third straight AFC East title before losing to the Cincinnati Bengals at home in the Divisional Round.
Injuries curtailed Buffalo’s dreams with quarterback Josh Allen hindered by an elbow injury in the latter half of the campaign, while they lost some key pieces on defense.
With few shakeups to last season's roster, one being the addition of RB Damien Harris from the Patriots, the Bills look poised for another run at the ultimate prize.
San Francisco 49ers +900
San Francisco shared Buffalo’s injury pain last season, having lost their top three quarterbacks to various ailments over the course of the year.
Brock Purdy was the last of the trio to go down in the NFC Championship game loss to the Eagles but with so much talent on both sides of the ball, particularly on a top-ranked defense, the Niners are rightly priced as the NFC’s top title contender.
There is a question about who will suit up for the Niners at quarterback, with 2021 #3 overall pick Trey Lance and Purdy both options, although Purdy won't be healthy in time for Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals +1000
The Cincinnati Bengals were happy to see their coaching staff remain intact after another excellent season which saw them reach a second-successive AFC Championship game.
With Joe Burrow firmly establishing himself as one of the league’s top quarterbacks, the once bottom-dwelling franchise has plenty to be excited about.
New York Jets +1400
The pieces are all there for the New York Jets to take off next season.
New York’s trade for Aaron Rodgers became official on Monday, April 24, triggering a massive change in the Jets’ outright odds.
Accompanying Rodgers in his new home will be offseason acquisitions WR Mecole Hardman, WR Allen Lazard, and OC Nathaniel Hackett. The latter two were members of the Packers with Rodgers.
Those newcomers will join a team bursting with young talent on both sides of the ball, including both the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year, Garrett Wilson and Sauce Gardner.
Dallas Cowboys +1400
The Dallas Cowboys went 12-5 last year and finally ended a long wait for a playoff win, but that was still short of expectations. The pressure is on head coach Mike McCarthy, who looks to be heading into a make-or-break year.
Dallas will be without two core pieces heading into 2023/24, having released RB Ezekiel Elliott and fired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Baltimore Ravens +2000
The Ravens offseason drama show ended with Lamar Jackson signing a five-year, $260 million contract in May, making him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
Adding Odell Beckham Jr. and WR Zay Flowers in the draft means the Ravens will come into the new season with a re-tooled, re-focused offense.
Detroit Lions +2200
The Lions came within a whisker of the playoffs last season and having finally got their act together under head coach Dan Campbell, they are ones to watch.
The Lions offence averaged the fifth most points per game, they have money to spend in free agency and they hold a top-six draft pick this year thanks to the trade with the Rams for Stafford.
Miami Dolphins +2200
The Dolphins may not have a first round draft pick this year but they appear to have a lot of nice pieces already on the roster to out-perform their odds.
The offense is stacked with talent, although a lot will rely on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa staying fit following a series of head injuries, or the Fins finding a replacement.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2500
The Jaguars were the bounce-back story of the season this year and will hope to build on their playoff run.
A young roster will have benefitted massively from another season in the NFL and head coach Doug Pederson looks the right man to take the team forward.
Los Angeles Chargers +2800
Failure to meet the Cowboys’ expectations cost offensive coordinator Kellen Moore his job, but the young coach wasn’t out of work long, as he was quickly snaffled up by the Chargers.
Moore is now tasked with unlocking the potential of Bolts quarterback Justin Herbert and an offence that is in need of some fresh talent if they are to seriously challenge divisional rivals Kansas City.
New Orleans Saints +3300
The Saints are sticking with Dennis Allen as head coach despite a sub-par 2022 and with the future looking far from rosy.
New Orleans also welcomes QB Derek Carr, who signed a 4-year, $150M contract on March 6. Allen was the Raiders' head coach in 2014, when Carr was drafted.
Seattle Seahawks +3300
The Seahawks are sticking with Geno Smith at quarterback and will hope to add more exciting young talent around the veteran.
Seattle drafted well last year and with two picks in the top-20 this year, they could outperform their rating once more, particularly if they improve the defense.
Cleveland Browns +3300
Another franchise hoping an experienced quarterback can come good is the Browns, who are counting on Deshaun Watson to rediscover his old form after returning from a lengthy hiatus in 2022.
The pieces are there for Watson to succeed if he can get his career back on track.
Minnesota Vikings +4000
The Vikings won the NFC North this season but needed a big slice of luck to do so and once they reached the playoffs, they were found out.
The Minnesota defense was amongst the worst in the league, while news that star running-back Dalvin Cook needs shoulder surgery is another concern for a franchise way over the salary cap this offseason.
New York Giants +4000
Brian Daboll made an instant impact as coach of the New York Giants, getting the most out of what was thought to be a below-par roster to reach the playoffs.
The G-Men signed QB Daniel Jones to a 4-year, $160M contract on March 7, confirming he'll be Big Blue's quarterback in 2023/24. Saquon Barkley's status is uncertain after the star RB was given the non-exclusive franchise tag.
Las Vegas Raiders +4000
The Raiders gambled by letting reliable quarterback Derek Carr leave and they’ll hope to find his replacement either with the number seven pick in the draft or via free agency.
They have issues elsewhere too though with the offensive line in need of an upgrade, but the money is there to improve Vegas.
Denver Broncos +4000
Sean Payton has been brought in to try and fix the Broncos after a disastrous first season following the big trade for quarterback Russell Wilson.
Denver have mortgaged their future on Wilson and if he flops for the second season in a row, they could be in big trouble.
If Wilson can bounce back, the supporting cast and coach in Payton is there for Denver to make a playoff run.
Chicago Bears +5000
Watch out for the Bears. Justin Fields gave plenty of demonstrations last year that he’s a future NFL superstar and Chicago has more cap space than anyone to maximize his talent.
Green Bay Packers +5000
The Packers are headed into uncharted waters, having officially traded Aaron Rodgers to the Jets and committing to Jordan Love as their starting QB.
One of the league’s most consistent, predictable franchises may be anything but that in 2023/24.
New England Patriots +5000
The Patriots are in a tough spot after a season in which they appeared to lose faith in quarterback Mac Jones.
They’ve hired a new offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien in the hope of sparking life into the attack which is in need of a major revamp before New England can even be considered playoff contenders.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5000
Kenny Pickett gave glimpses of being a more than capable NFL quarterback in his rookie season and the outlook is bright for the Steelers.
They have a defense capable of being a top-10 unit, some nice young talent on offence and an excellent head coach in Mike Tomlin.
They are in a competitive AFC North but are an interesting franchise from a playoff perspective given the odds.
Carolina Panthers +6600
The Panthers appointed Franck Reich as head coach and drafted Bryce Young with the No. 1 overall pick, setting themselves up for far more success than in 2022/23.
After a torrid start, Carolina rallied to finish last year 7-10 and have some young studs on defense, such as DE Brian Burns.
Los Angeles Rams +6600
The Rams produced the worst title defense in NFL history when going 5-12 this season and it’s tough to see them getting anywhere close to a title game again.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s neck injury is a concern, while they are well over the salary cap and don’t have a first round draft pick this year.
Head coach Sean McVay is staying on at least but it’s an unfavorable situation.
Washington Commanders +6600
The Commanders are stuck in no-mans-land with no obvious means of escape. They desperately need a top-level quarterback to complement a strong defensive front but don’t have a high draft pick or the cap space to attract one.
Atlanta Falcons +6600
Coach Arthur Smith got plenty out of the Falcons last year and it might be a mistake to immediately dismiss them from playoff contention.
The quarterback situation is a worry with Desmond Ridder perhaps not the long-term answer but they have the money to spend to replace him, or surround him with talent, such as No. 8 overall pick Bijan Robinson.
Tennessee Titans +8000
With a new general manager in Ran Carthon at the helm, the direction for the Titans is unknown.
They have always been a playoff-contending franchise under coach Mike Vrabel but a roster featuring several veterans potentially past their best is in need of an overhaul and the temptation might be to start again from scratch.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
Life after Tom Brady isn’t looking good for a Bucs franchise that’s over the salary cap more than any other in the NFL.
Having enjoyed the highs of an NFL Championship under Brady, the Bucs may consider tearing it all down and starting again this summer.
Indianapolis Colts +10000
Shane Steichen has a massive job on his hands in his first head coaching position with the Colts in need of improvement in nearly every area.
Anthony Richardson, who Indy selected fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft, can resurrect the offense but will need to hit the ground running for his team to have any success this year.
Arizona Cardinals +17500
The Cardinals are ready to undergo a rebuild and there’s expected to be a huge amount of change in Arizona before the new season.
Kyler Murray will remain the quarterback after signing a massive new contract but the cast around him will change dramatically under new head coach Jonathan Gannon. Little is expected of them next term.
Houston Texans +17500
DeMeco Ryans has come home to Houston to resurrect the Texans franchise.
The project began when Houston drafted CJ Stroud at No. 2, then traded up to the No. 3 overall pick to take DE Will Anderson.
There’s hope for the future, but any real success this season would be a surprise.
Odds subject to change. Odds correct as of 4 PM ET on 6/9/23.
