The most popular upset pick in the first round of the tournament every March is a 12-seed over a 5-seed, and for good reason.

Since the men’s NCAA tournament expanded to a 64-team field in 1985, there have been 148 matchups between a 5-seed and a 12-seed. 

The #12, often a mid-major university matched up against a power-five team with superior talent, coaching, and resources, has seen tremendous success in the first round, more so than any other low seed. 

In those 148 first-round matchups, 12-seeds have a combined 53-95 record. 

While that comes in as a winning percentage of just 35.8%, the frequency of a 12 vs. 5 resulting in an upset is greater than any other first round matchup. For reference, 13-seeds have an inferior 21.5% winning percentage in the first round since 1985. Just five of the last 37 men’s tournaments have seen all four 12-seeds lose in the first round. 

Will this theme continue in the 2023 edition of the men's NCAAB Championship?

This year's 5 vs. 12 matchups

What	#5 San Diego St. vs. #12 Charleston
When	Thursday, March 16th @ 3:10 PM ET
Where	Amway Center (Orlando, FL)
How to watch	TSN

What	#5 Duke vs. #12 Oral Roberts
When	Thursday, March 16th @ 7:10 PM ET
Where	Amway Center (Orlando, FL)
How to watch	TSN

What	#5 Saint Mary's vs. #12 VCU
When	Friday, March 17th @ 2:00 PM ET
Where	MVP Arena (Albany, NY)
How to watch	TSN

What	#5 Miami vs. #12 Drake
When	Friday, March 17th @ 2:00 PM ET
Where	MVP Arena (Albany, NY)
How to watch	TSN

Why 12 vs. 5?

Due to the constant turnover of personnel in college basketball, and new teams being in the 12 vs. 5 matchup each year, it is impossible to pin down a specific reason why this first-round matchup has resulted in so many upsets.

Typically, 5-seeds are not among the elite teams in the nation, and have displayed their fair share of struggles throughout the regular season. If the top four teams in the country at the end of the regular season are the tournament’s 1-seeds, that would indicate the four 5-seeds are somewhere between the 16th and 20th best teams. 

That does not necessarily mean 12-seeds are around the 50th best in the nation, though. 

Unlike the higher-seeded teams, schools that fill out the 12-, 13- and 14-seed slots are usually mid-major schools that were the cream of the crop in their conference for the past four months. These teams play with confidence and believe they can beat anybody. 

They may not match their opposition for talent, but that can be made up for with effort, consistency, and a good game plan. Plus, their underdog nature adds an aura of calmness to how they play in March. 

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Recent and notable upsets

At least one 12-seed triumphs in most every NCAA tournament, so there have been plenty of notable players, teams, and coaches that have taken part of these games.

In the 2022 edition of March Madness, #5 Iowa, which boasted player of the year candidate and future No. 4 overall pick in the NBA Draft Keegan Murray, fell to #12 Richmond in Buffalo, New York.

Less than four hours later, on the same court, #5 Connecticut put up a dud against #12 New Mexico State, losing 70-63. 

In 2019, now-NBA superstar with the Memphis Grizzlies Ja Morant led No. 12 Murray State to a first-round blowout over No. 5 Marquette. Morant posted a triple-double (17 points, 11 rebounds, 16 assists) as his team raced to a 19-point victory.

There have been 15 tournaments since 1985 in which multiple 12-seeds won in the first round, and five tournaments with three of the four 12-seeds advancing (2002, 2009, 2013, 2014, 2019).

Only once has a 12-seed actually been favoured over their first-round opponent. This came in 2017 when #12 Middle Tennessee St. closed as a 1.5-point favourite over #5 Minnesota. MTSU came into the game with a 31-4 record on the season and eliminated Minnesota by a score of 81-72.

In 2004, #12 Manhattan routed #5 Florida in the first round in the very first game of the tournament, coming as a big shock. Florida was the number one team in the country in December and were led by up-and-coming head coach Billy Donovan, who now coaches the Chicago Bulls. What makes this upset notable is Donovan led UF to back-to-back national titles starting just two seasons later.

Two 12-seeds – Ball State (vs. Oregon St. in 1990) and Western Kentucky (vs. Drake in 2008) – won their first round matchups in the most dramatic way possible: via a buzzer beater. 

Every #12 to win over a #5

Below is a list of every 12-over-5 upset in NCAA tournament history (since 1985). List courtesy of NCAA.com.

Year	#12 vs. #5 matchup	Final score
1985	Kentucky def. Washington	66-58
1986	DePaul def. Virginia	72-68
1987	Wyoming def. Virginia	64-60
1989	DePaul def. Memphis State	66-63
1990	Dayton def. Illinois	88-86
1990	Ball State def. Oregon State	54-53
1991	Eastern Michigan def. Mississippi State	76-56
1992	New Mexico State def. DePaul	81-73
1993	George Washington def. New Mexico	82-68
1994	UW-Green Bay def. California	61-57
1994	Tulsa def. UCLA	112-102
1995	Miami (Ohio) def. Arizona	71-62
1996	Drexel def. Memphis	75-63
1996	Arkansas def. Penn State	86-80
1997	College of Charleston def. Maryland	75-66
1998	Florida State def. TCU	96-87
1999	Detroit def. UCLA	56-53
1999	Missouri State def. TCU	96-87
2001	Utah State def. Ohio State	77-68 (OT)
2001	Gonzaga def. Virginia	86-85
2002	Tulsa def. Marquette	71-69
2002	Missouri def. Miami (Fla.)	93-80
2002	Creighton def. Florida	83-82 (2OT)
2003	Butler def. Mississippi State	47-46
2004	Pacific def. Providence	66-58
2005	Milwaukee def. Alabama	83-73
2006	Montana def. Nevada	87-79
2006	Texas A&M def. Syracuse	66-58
2008	Villanova def. Clemson	75-69
2008	Western Kentucky def. Drake	101-99 (OT)
2009	Wisconsin def. Florida State	61-59 (OT)
2009	Arizona def. Utah	84-71
2009	Western Kentucky def. Illinois	76-72
2010	Cornell def. Temple	78-65
2011	Richmond def. Vanderbilt	69-66
2012	South Florida def. Temple	58-44
2012	VCU def. Wichita State	62-59
2013	Ole Miss def. Wisconsin	57-46
2013	California def. UNLV	64-61
2013	Oregon def. Oklahoma State	68-55
2014	Harvard def. Cincinnati	61-57
2014	North Dakota State def. Oklahoma	80-75(OT)
2014	Stephen F. Austin def. VCU	77-75 (OT)
2016	Little Rock def. Purdue	85-83 (2OT)
2016	Yale def. Baylor	79-75
2017	Middle Tennessee def. Minnesota	81-72
2019	Liberty def. Mississippi State	80-76
2019	Murray State def. Marquette	83-64
2019	Oregon def. Wisconsin	72-54
2021	Oregon State def. Tennessee	70-56
2022	Richmond def. Iowa	67-63
2022	New Mexico State def. UConn	70-63